Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4145
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 4145 · GSP → ORD
departs 6:53 PM ET · arrives 7:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 33%
Sat 10/31 40%
Sun 11/1 36%
Mon 11/2 26%
Tue 11/3 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±6 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from GSP are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GSP
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
GSP (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.