Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4151
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 4151 · JAX → ORD
departs 12:36 PM ET · arrives 2:17 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 22%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at JAX that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.