Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4167
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 4167 · DFW → LEX
departs 7:11 PM CT · arrives 10:31 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 19%
Sat 10/31 21%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 23%
Tue 11/3 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at LEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LEX?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LEX
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
LEX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.