Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4168
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
MQ 4168 · CRP → DFW
departs 7:12 AM CT · arrives 8:50 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 5%
Wed 10/28 8%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 14%
Sat 10/31 10%
Sun 11/1 11%
Mon 11/2 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave CRP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
CRP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
CRP (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.