Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4174
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 4174 · DFW → PIA
departs 9:56 AM CT · arrives 12:01 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 18%
Tue 11/3 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at PIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
9am departures from DFW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
MQ's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 8.66667 mi Precip none
PIA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.