Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4213
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
MQ 4213 · PHX → MZT
departs 10:07 AM MT · arrives 12:22 PM MST
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28 11%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MZT more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MZT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at MZT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MZT?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2.1 in of rain forecast at MZT that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
MZT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MZT (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 2.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.