Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4224
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 4224 · MLU → DFW
departs 1:50 PM CT · arrives 3:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave MLU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MLU
Weather at each end
MLU (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 8.33333 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.