Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4243
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
MQ 4243 · DFW → CUU
departs 3:04 PM CT · arrives 3:58 PM CST
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28 16%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 21%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at CUU more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CUU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at CUU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to CUU?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at CUU that day
↑
3pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
CUU usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CUU (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.63 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.