Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4254
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 4254 · DFW → BMI
departs 9:01 PM CT · arrives 11:08 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 11%
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 19%
Tue 11/3 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at BMI more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BMI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at BMI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BMI?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
BMI usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 7.66667 mi Precip 0.02 in
BMI (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.