Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4271
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 4271 · ORD → ABE
departs 7:02 PM CT · arrives 9:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 36%
Sun 11/1 32%
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at ABE more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ABE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at ABE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ABE?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ABE
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ABE (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.