Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4309 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

MQ 4309 · DFW → LIT

departs 3:42 PM CT · arrives 4:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 33h before departure

Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIT?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LIT

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility8.33333 mi Precipnone

LIT (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4309 · DFW → LIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIT?