Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 9870
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Today
MQ 9870 · CMH → ORD
departs 6:37 PM ET · arrives 6:53 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
CMH (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.