Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 1011
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
MX 1011 · SAT → RDU
departs 9:21 AM CT · arrives 1:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Sun 11/1 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MX's recent on-time record
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at SAT that day
↓
9am departures from SAT are usually not late
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at RDU that day
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.17 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.