Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 1303
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
MX 1303 · MCO → RDU
departs 7:06 AM ET · arrives 9:02 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28 13%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 15%
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 17%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±4 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MX's recent on-time record
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at MCO that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into RDU at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.