Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 1311
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MX 1311 · HPN → RDU
departs 7:44 PM ET · arrives 9:27 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 33%
Sat 10/31 26%
Sun 11/1 29%
Mon 11/2 23%
Tue 11/3 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave HPN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HPN
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at RDU that day
Weather at each end
HPN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.