Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 1366
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
MX 1366 · ISP → ORF
departs 7:44 PM ET · arrives 9:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29
Sun 11/1 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave ISP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into ORF at that hour are often late
↑
7pm departures from ISP are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ISP
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF
Weather at each end
ISP (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.