Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 1400
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MX 1400 · OGS → RDU
departs 12:31 PM ET · arrives 2:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 21%
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave OGS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MX's recent on-time record
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OGS
↓
12pm departures from OGS are usually not late
Weather at each end
OGS (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.