Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 156
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MX 156 · MCO → GSP
departs 6:18 PM ET · arrives 8:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Sun 11/1 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±3 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at GSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to GSP?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at MCO that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GSP
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
GSP (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.