Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 1644
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MX 1644 · MCO → ILM
departs 7:33 PM ET · arrives 9:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Thu 10/29
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 29%
Tue 11/3 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±7 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at ILM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ILM?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at MCO that day
↓
ILM usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ILM
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.15 in
ILM (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.