Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 1909
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MX 1909 · MCO → SBN
departs 5:14 PM ET · arrives 8:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Sun 11/1 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SBN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SBN?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at MCO that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
SBN usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.15 in
SBN (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.