Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 202 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

MX 202 · CHS → ORF

departs 3:51 PM ET · arrives 5:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 3pm departures from CHS are often late

↑ Arrivals into ORF at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CHS

Weather at each end

CHS (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,667 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 202 · CHS → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?