Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 2311
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MX 2311 · RIC → TPA
departs 8:37 PM ET · arrives 11:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Sun 11/1 22%
Tue 11/3 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±3 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.