Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 2411
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
MX 2411 · TPA → RIC
departs 6:03 AM ET · arrives 8:19 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 5%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 7%
Sun 11/1 10%
Mon 11/2 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at RIC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RIC?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MX's recent on-time record
↑
This route's recent record
↑
TPA is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into RIC at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.06 in
RIC (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.