Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 2466
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MX 2466 · RDU → TPA
departs 9:43 PM ET · arrives 11:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 10/29
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.