Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 2511
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MX 2511 · XNA → MSY
departs 1:32 PM CT · arrives 3:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Sun 11/1 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
MX's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MSY at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.