Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 259
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
MX 259 · SFO → CVG
departs 1:02 PM PT · arrives 8:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Thu 10/29
Sun 11/1 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SFO is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CVG (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.