Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 266
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MX 266 · SBN → MCO
departs 8:48 PM ET · arrives 11:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Sun 11/1 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±4 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SBN (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.