Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 2811
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MX 2811 · SNA → PVU
departs 7:58 PM PT · arrives 10:49 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Sun 11/1 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at PVU more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at PVU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PVU?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
↓
Visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at PVU that day
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
PVU (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.