Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 2866
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
MX 2866 · GSP → RSW
departs 8:04 PM ET · arrives 10:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29
Sun 11/1 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at RSW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RSW?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from GSP are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GSP
↓
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at RSW that day
Weather at each end
GSP (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RSW (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.