MX 401 · JAX → ORF

departs 6:27 PM ET · arrives 8:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 6pm departures from JAX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

↓ ORF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 401 · JAX → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?