Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 466
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
MX 466 · SNA → LAS
departs 7:25 AM PT · arrives 8:42 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Wed 10/28 8%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 14%
Sat 10/31 11%
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
LAS is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.