Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 617
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MX 617 · PVU → SNA
departs 7:41 PM MT · arrives 8:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 19%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave PVU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at PVU that day
Weather at each end
PVU (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.8 mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.