Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 761
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MX 761 · AVP → MCO
departs 9:10 PM ET · arrives 11:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Sun 11/1 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±4 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave AVP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AVP
↓
9pm departures from AVP are usually not late
Weather at each end
AVP (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.