Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 806
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
MX 806 · MCO → MSN
departs 3:00 PM ET · arrives 5:04 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/29
Sun 11/1 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
MSN (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.