Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 831
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MX 831 · HVN → MCO
departs 7:54 PM ET · arrives 10:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Sun 11/1 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave HVN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at MCO that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HVN
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
HVN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.