Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ANA · FLIGHT NH 101 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

NH 101 · IAD → HND

departs 12:18 PM ET · arrives 3:34 PM JST

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at HND more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HND?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 12pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ IAD is busy at that time

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at IAD that day

↓ HND usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

HND (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

NH 101 · IAD → HND

Odds over time

How late will it get to HND?