Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5200 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

OH 5200 · MKE → PHL

departs 6:21 AM CT · arrives 9:39 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 AM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE

Weather at each end

MKE (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5200 · MKE → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?