Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5628 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

OH 5628 · PHL → XNA

departs 7:40 PM ET · arrives 9:35 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to XNA?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

XNA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5628 · PHL → XNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to XNA?