OO 3490 · SFO → SAN

departs 11:42 AM PT · arrives 1:27 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3490 · SFO → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?