OO 3772 · JAX → AUS

departs 5:02 PM ET · arrives 6:56 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from JAX are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at AUS that day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3772 · JAX → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?