Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3801
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
OO 3801 · DTW → OMA
departs 4:01 PM ET · arrives 5:09 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 10/28 12%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 20%
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at OMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OMA?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OMA
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
OMA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.