Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3841
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
OO 3841 · DTW → BUF
departs 7:17 AM ET · arrives 8:33 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Wed 10/28 8%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 13%
Sat 10/31 13%
Sun 11/1 17%
Mon 11/2 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
DTW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
Arrivals into BUF at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
BUF (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.