Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3847
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
OO 3847 · DTW → BUF
departs 1:59 PM ET · arrives 3:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28 13%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
DTW is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
BUF (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.