Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3946
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
OO 3946 · SNA → SEA
departs 12:02 PM PT · arrives 2:46 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 10/28 22%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 33%
Sat 10/31 21%
Sun 11/1 37%
Mon 11/2 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
12pm departures from SNA are often late
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,733 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.