OO 3964 · MBS → DTW

departs 6:15 PM ET · arrives 7:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

↓ MBS is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

MBS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3964 · MBS → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?