OO 3991 · SFO → SEA

departs 8:59 PM PT · arrives 11:17 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±4 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3991 · SFO → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?