Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4231
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
OO 4231 · CIU → DTW
departs 4:13 PM ET · arrives 5:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Wed 10/28 6%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave CIU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
4pm departures from CIU are usually not late
Weather at each end
CIU (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.06 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.