OO 4757 · ORD → TVC

departs 1:30 PM CT · arrives 3:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TVC?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TVC (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4757 · ORD → TVC

Odds over time

How late will it get to TVC?