Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4784
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
OO 4784 · FWA → ORD
departs 2:26 PM ET · arrives 2:33 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 25h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave FWA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
FWA usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FWA
Weather at each end
FWA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.