Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4791
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
OO 4791 · ORD → SBN
departs 10:51 AM CT · arrives 12:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 17%
Sat 10/31 37%
Sun 11/1 29%
Mon 11/2 27%
Tue 11/3 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at SBN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBN?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
10am departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
SBN usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SBN (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.